Groundhog Day 2024: Will Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow? The forecast says...

Will it be another six weeks of winter, or an early spring? That's right, woodchuckers, it's Groundhog Day 2024!

Punxsutawney Phil will give his yearly weather prediction on Friday, February 2, at Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. The small hamlet, known as the "weather capital of the world," is home to the tiny meteorologist, who is currently commemorating their 138th Groundhog Day event.

Will the Groundhog see his shadow? If he does, it means another six weeks of winter. If not, you will not need to wear your booties.

According to the Old Farmer's Almanack, the famed weather forecaster will not see his shadow on Friday morning due to gloomy skies in Punxsutawney. There is also a risk of rain, making an early spring appropriate.

The Groundhog Day festivities will be broadcast live at 7:15 a.m. on several networks and livestreams, including USA Today's YouTube account.

Of course, if you live in Syracuse, you could be asking when winter will begin, not end. According to goldensnowball.com, Salt City has received only 27.9 inches of snow this season as of Feb. 1; the normal average at this time is 74 inches. Last month, mild weather caused the Syracuse Pond Hockey Classic to transfer from Hiawatha Lake, which had not frozen, to Clinton Square.

It's becoming a fad. The year 2023 was Syracuse's third-warmest in at least 120 years, while six of the city's ten warmest years have happened since 2002. Syracuse has historically been the snowiest city in America, but last winter received only 55 inches of snow, less than half of the usual 128 inches.

Buffalo, on the other hand, is getting closer to its annual normal snowfall after a massive winter storm forced a Buffalo Bills game to be postponed in January. According to The Golden Snowball, the Queen City has received 53.6 inches of snow during the winter of 2023-2024, with the typical average being 60 inches.

So it's unsurprising that Buffalo Bert, Western New York's answer to Phil, saw his shadow last week. That means six more weeks of winter—at least in Buffalo.

In any case, the first day of spring 2024 falls on March 19 this year. The season officially begins on the vernal equinox.

Groundhog Day history

According to an old German folklore, if a groundhog sees his shadow on February 2, winter will linger an additional six weeks. If not, spring arrives earlier. (The pseudo-holiday originated as badger day in European mythology, but German immigrants in Pennsylvania couldn't find badgers, so they substituted groundhogs.)

According to the Associated Press, the small meteorologist's weather "forecast" is already established before he "sees" his shadow on Groundhog Day. According to records, Punxsutawney Phil has predicted an extended winter more than 100 times since 1887, and spring just over a dozen times.

The NOAA also reports that there is no nationwide association between Phil's shadow sightings and the actual weather in February and March. According to the statistics, the groundhog's shadow is only approximately 40% accurate in predicting the weather.

Punxsutawney Phil also has a poor track record for predicting weather in Syracuse and Central New York. From 2004 to 2013, there was no link between his forecasts and actual weather: Phil predicted a late spring in the five warmest periods following Feb. 2 throughout that time period; in the coldest six-week span, in 2007, he promised an early spring.

However, the absurd custom has endured, thanks in part to the 1993 film "Groundhog Day." Bill Murray played grouchy weatherman Phil Connors, who lives the same day (February 2) over and over again in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania.

"This is pitiful. A thousand people are freezing their buttocks off waiting to worship a rat. "What a hype," Murray says in the film.

Murray revived his groundhog journey in a 2020 Super Bowl commercial, and his co-star Stephen Tobolowsky, who played insurance salesman Ned Ryerson, is set to appear in eight separate Groundhog Day-themed spots this Friday.